Cycling Brands are working fervently to unload the current stocks of bikes, clothing, and accessories to make room for the new 2024 models. This can be seen across the board as brands are discounting at an unprecedented level. I will dive into the technical aspects of how model years work, and what we can expect to see in the coming months with regards to the new 2024 products.

How Model Years Work (bikes)

Most bike brands release their bikes using model years similar to the automobile industry. The upcoming model year is presented during the summer, usually in conjunction with the Eurobike trade show in Frankfurt. Based on pre-orders from dealers and distributors, the first shipments of the new range are seen around September. Shipments arrive throughout the Fall and into the Spring until the process repeats itself for the following year.

Model Years in Other Categories

Helmet and shoe brands follow a similar paradigm while clothing brands have two ranges per year, with a distinction between Spring/Summer and Fall/Winter collections.

Pre-Order and Delivery Times

As much of the production of bikes and accessories happen in Asia, the time between order and delivery of new products can take months. This is the main reason why the pre-order process has long been a standard practice. This also allows for brands and retailers to plan and rationalize their investments.

Warehouses Stuffed with Product

Brand and distributor warehouses, bike shops and factories in Asia are still sitting on large quantities of product from the COVID boom. What does this mean for the 2024 model year? Pre-orders are likely much softer than previous years. To mitigate, bike brands can make minor changes to current models or carry them over outright to the following model year.

The Gloves are Off when it Comes to Promotions

Up until 2019, it was extremely rare to find brands discounting on their official web shops. Promotions were reserved for digitally native brands like Rapha, La Passione, and Canyon. To avoid jeopardizing the relationship with the trade, brands were highly protective of their B2B networks. Once the COVID pandemic hit, everything changed. Nearly all brands activated ecommerce shops with full assortments, and competitive pricing.

Discounting is the weapon of choice against overstocks

As the freight train of 2024 product is barreling towards us, and historically high inventory levels at all areas of the distribution network, all bets are off. Brands are using discounts as their weapon of choice against overstocks. To illustrate this phenomenon, I have compiled a listing of promotions currently active on some of the top brands and web shops:

-Specialized 35% on certain models in Europe

-Trek (USA 10% off select bikes)

-Castelli (40% off on European Web site)

-Cannondale (USA 10%-20% bikes)

-Wiggle Europe Select Top Brands 50%-60% off

How will it play out?

Because of the continuing warehouse issues and cash flow pressure in the market, I predict we will see more promotions than ever this Fall, through Black Friday and into the new year. Margins will inevitably suffer. Brands will suffer, bike shops will suffer. Customers will get the best deals ever.